Topic:   The Decision Support System GMCR II in

Negotiations over Groundwater Contamination

Speaker:  Prof. Keith W. Hipel

Position: 加拿大皇家科学院院长

美国工程院外籍院士

加拿大工程院院士

加拿大滑铁卢大学教授

Research: Conflict Resolution, Multiple Criteria

Decision Analysis, Time Series Analysis

Decision-Making Methodologies

Time:    9:30-11:30, April 4th, 2016

Venue:   Information Building 228

Inviter:  Professor Min Huang

Abstract：

A groundwater contamination conflict is employed as an illustrative case study to clearly demonstrate how the decision support system GMCR II can be conveniently applied to environmental negotiations as well as other kinds of disputes. The controversy, systematically studied using GMCR II, is the strategic conflict that arose after the discovery of a carcinogen in the aquifer supplying water to the town of Elmira, located in Southern Ontario, Canada, about 100 km west of Toronto. At the model formulation stage, GMCR II is utilized to describe the Elmira dispute in terms of decision makers, options or courses of action available to each decision maker, feasible states or scenarios that could take place, allowable moves available to each decision maker, and relative preferences among states for each of the disputants. At the subsequent analysis step, GMCR II generates a range of useful analytical results that may assist an interested party in better understanding the strategic aspects of the conflict and envisioning possible pathways for optimal decision making. For the Elmira dispute, potential equilibria or compromise resolutions are suggested and the reasons for the decision of two of the disputants to form a coalition and bring about a dramatic resolution to the conflict are explained. Current and future developments in the graph model methodology are outlined, including the design of the next generation of a decision support system for GMCR II.